NFL Picks Week 1 – Sports Gambling Podcast – NFL Predictions Week 1 – NFL Predictions 9/11/22


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yes nfl picks week one edition of the sports gaming podcast is presented by win bet about 100 win bed and get 100 free bet head over to sportsgamblingpodcast.com win bet that's sportsgamilypodcast.com w-y-n-n-b-e-t to claim your free bet today we're also brought to you by our 32 nfl team preview podcast win total plays for every nfl team just go to sportsgivingpodcast.com nfl previews we're also brought to you by the free roll football contest the free roll football contest is back and better than ever five thousand dollars up for grabs in our nfl contest and 1500 in our brand new college football contest sign up exclusively in our discord sports gameplaypodcast.com discord that's sportsgamblingpodcast.com discord [Music] he's one of those guys [Music] welcome everyone to the sports gambling podcast i'm sean sack in the money green with my partner picks ryan real money kramer what's happening crame dawg i'd like to thank uh the degens i'd like to thank you sean colby the rest of the contributors at sgpn uh for helping us get through this off season for helping us get through the wait is over the the just dry dry summer months of baseball basketball we pretended like we cared we didn't care the nfl's here we want baby shake want barclays numbers on my chest and i'm ready to give out some winners sean we won't go undefeated this week but we're going to win some games promise you that is uh see what i did there yeah you set the bar we have a high floor low ceiling uh no wait no low floor high ceiling of our of our week one picks podcast well sean once we put in our our special parlay we're gonna have a high ceiling yeah and we are we are going to be getting down on our texans steelers division parlay that is uh estimated to pay uh 340 to one so uh i mean we we will be i think that's that's on the schedule for later today the itinerary oh explore and fight the itinerary find crazy parlays jersey rare breed slash untamed where's your chain oh a great question i was really hoping you'd forgotten it sean is is ravaging through his stuff he clearly forgot that he was going to be full full-blown i was going to do a dramatic i reveal uh i did i think i scared chris long when i wore the uh rare breed untamed chain around him he was worried that it wasn't real metal and it was going to turn your skin green you have a very fair complex and it might it probably won't match that eagle green anyway yeah we're here to we're here to crush nfl week one uh we're here to crush uh crush the tables haven't we haven't made it to the tables yet while sean figures out his jewelry but crush the games crush the tables and uh i think we're right now terrell is in the green room out there crafting parlays so uh we're gonna we're gonna have a high ceiling sean i i you're gonna regret saying we didn't have a high ceiling there no we'll redo the start should we redo the whole show high ceiling high floor let's high ceiling high floor to the moon let's go fire it up oh listen to that music player and of course you know oh look at this look at this rare breed untamed you know who else is a rare breed when it comes to online sports books that's right win bet just go to sportsgiveawaypodcast.com slash win bet claim your uh hundred dollar risk repent all you gotta do is bet a hundred dollars i mean bet a hundred dollars get a hundred dollar risk free bet you cannot go wrong with that highly recommend going over to win bet all the lines we're about to give you courtesy of our good buddies over at win bet bet big win bigger we're coming to you live from the win vet studios in beautiful win las vegas and hey you can win a two-night stay here at this very uh hotel it is an amazing hotel and all you got to do and you can win 3 500 and a two night stay for first place in the free roll football contest five thousand dollars up for grab sports gamingpodcast.com discord and 1500 bucks in our college contest sportsgivingpodcast.com discord offers subjects to change terms conditions at windbeds.com let's see 21 or older and present the state where play through win bet is available if you or someone you know is a gaming problem call 152 4700 we're also brought to you by the elias sports bureau we know you you've used the elias uh you you've you don't even realize how many times you've heard these elias sports bureau stats uh they are the official stack keepers of the nfl and a bunch of other pro leagues lies gameplay and app highly recommended again if you're playing fantasy if you're betting on sports you need the elias game plan app because man it just it just has you covered game previews player previews just a ton of uh stats nuggets uh what to expect in certain situations these guys go really deep and again these are handcrafted stats handcrafted artisanal nuggets no big data no a.i here again download the elias game plan app use our promo code sgpn and you get a 14 day free trial off their monthly plan that's the elias game plan sports betting app in the app store play store promo code s g p n i'm and i'm loading it up now when i was putting together my notes i was using a lot of these because um you know they kind of i like that they do these things where it's like hey here's the case for uh the 49ers here's the case for the bears and then you can read both cases and you're like okay i actually like uh the i i like the bears better angle you know so it's uh it's great for that and remember responsibly sourced i was telling the guy at the farmer's market just last week about it loved it and uh shout out to the youtube chat magic man blanco patrick fisher uh bill's mafia dj92 there are so many so many uh great people uh mixing up here justin wood a lot of front of the class [ __ ] here huh yes we are uh we're back officially for an eleventh season uh so again shout out is that right 11.

11 seasons where we picked every nfl game against the spread so again shout out to bluewire shout out to win bet uh our partners here and then all the great people uh at sgpn ryan got a uh dm from a from a fan this is pretty hilarious uh he goes hey i've been listening to you and cream dog for years even when i lived in australia for six years oh shout out to australia we have a bunch of great uh fans down underneath the pick dundee fan club yeah the once you once you have a character related to uh crocodile dundee the australian fans just can't help themselves but to hop on the network still laugh at the halloween story but man do you guys still like each other feels like a downfall from fame with you with you both and it's obvious on your youtube shows love each other exclamation point you guys are awesome together so wow i wrote back that there are no issues and uh happy 11th year anniversary ride i guess he's noticing how much blackjack you've been playing on on stream video has not been kind to all of us uh come on i'm down and ready to go for nfl week one and uh mention win bet i'll get to these couple nuggets before uh we get to the picks here top three most bet uh win total markets ryan chicago bears under six and a half which i'm on the opposite side easy money tampa bay bucks under 11 and a half easy money and i like that side but man and the seahawks under five and a half wins so i i can't recall a time where the public is so big on unders for wind tunnels uh yeah but but but you also i mean you know this is where you question the data source sean okay because we we were hearing how much money was coming in on the jets early in the process like i i think you know is it odd that the teams with the lowest uh the teams with those are those are most bad now the highest handle is oh what's the handle then uh well any interesting ones bucks are up there uh cleveland brown's under nine yeah which makes sense we have a lot of fans sean they all listen they said oh [ __ ] they're right top three this is wild top three most bad teams to win the super bowl as you would imagine bills number one that line just keeps going down uh tampa bay bucks uh and then kansas city chiefs number three there all right i mean everything makes sense i guess texans weren't on the list how far down do you have to scroll because shout out to the chat uh jared is uh crafting an even better way to bet the texans this year be bullish on them 151 texans win every divisional game wow that's pretty juicy all right how do we do this sean do we just pick games i got breaking news i'll save it for the game in question but uh this is it just keeps getting better okay do we wanna do we wanna talk about the contest that even even shout out to big blue big blues in all the contests if you can't figure it out yeah and and again i know you think oh college football season already started you can still join you get your 10 000 credits uh as kramer pointed out you would be ahead of him in the standings for the free credits yes i was up to um as you start with ten thousand i think it was at eleven five and then i just i uh i just laid down like sixty five hundred dollars in credits and again you know not to plug play action pools but i downloaded the app much better experience i'm dialed in so yeah sportsgameonpodcast.com discord that's where you get the sign up link in the contest and uh thank you guys for spreading the word as well so expecting a huge turnout have you made your picks yet for week one or is that on the to-do for the nfl yes no right i make my picks on air in front of the audience i have some notes i have a process the process begins now let's go nfl week one i was giving you a platform to talk about how you were a gut handicapper all right week one mere hours away uh as we sit here sean i'll do the math in my head 26 and a half hours live football live bullets will be in the air buffalo the bills the favorites the chalk to win this super bowl taking on the winners of the last super bowl in beautiful los angeles rams a two and a half point quote home dog plus 115 on the money line bills minus 140 52 and a half is the total we discussed this in the summer uh actually back in may it was a pick em yeah i thought the public trend of what the super bowl winners have done eighteen and three straight up thirteen six and two against the spread dating back to super bowl thirty even if you chop that down to a ten year or 12 year sample it's not horrible if you shrink it all the way down to like three or four years it's not great but it's a public trend is my point i thought people would be on the rams for that reason but holy crap am i terrified for my bills mafia because the heat they are coming into this season with is out of control and and all of that aside like yes if i if let's let's consider this a neutral field game sean because that's pretty much what it is i think there's gonna be more bills fans what would you make the game if it was neutral i'd probably make it two and a half i think this is probably a good number i'm a little surprised that we kind of misread this one i think in this in the off season but leading off the season it's an absolute uh horrible spot i i don't really want to come in backing the rams here even with that trend i don't really want to get in the way of this train yeah do you want to get in the way of this train the bill's training the bill's training no i love the bills ryan and and the only reason um but the number the number yeah again you take the two and a half shots i know i know laying the two and a half is maybe not the best way to start the nfl season but the bills are just a much better team josh allen is going to get up for this game and i i love his ability to scramble i think that to me is the biggest thing in here and and we talked about when we gave out the sleeper props uh sleeper.com but josh allen's rushing total at like 36 and a half is is crazy low to me i think he is going to be a willing runner in this game and we also you know they do have a good defense the rams uh more or less but now you're losing von miller which he really gave them a boost in the pass rush and uh jalen ramsey coming off shoulder surgery that he had a couple days ago like supposedly he's gonna be out there and i get it for a quarterback you maybe don't need your shoulder but i'll say this maybe this is a couple uh you know gabe davis breaks the tackle stephon digs guys that might be a little hard to take down if you your shoulder surgery like you're still going to be tender and matt stafford i mean we talked about it when we gave out his over a half interception prop he is on a crazy run of throwing interceptions he was able to overcome the interceptions in the super bowl but let's be honest he didn't play great in that super bowl he didn't play great in that nfc championship game and i think you have the back issue the elbow issue and the fact that he was limited throughout the entire preseason you didn't even mention how odell is not back from his acl or even on the team yeah now and alan robinson could give them a nice boost in the passing game but my my counter to that is i i think odell was the type of receiver they needed for this offense to spread the feel out now you have van jefferson uh his status uh for thursday he's up in the air he's gonna be out yeah it doesn't okay tyler higby he just got his knee cleaned up is he going to really be able to isn't nfl week one a mother you finally get the injury report it's like ah my best ball teams he's he's playing they've been lying to us all this time and r.i.p my uh trey mcbride dfs shares because now ryan you're right i know i'm not afraid to admit i was wrong i maybe overreacted i got really excited about trey mcbride possibly playing who knows the calf strain is a trick and yeah i mean to me to me the other big thing we haven't even hit on it is the rams offensive line is the rams offensive line going to be the same without whitworth i imagine it's going to take a little bit to get this team dialed in one team feels like they'll be foaming at the mouth the other team i i don't have supreme confidence they will now they still have like absolute studs they still have they still were the defending champ they still you know teams dropping the banner they do well they do well so i i look i went back and i i took i don't think i was able to find a case in the same sample size of super bowl winners i don't think any of them have not been favored i think this is the first time the only time in the last uh what is this 20 26 years that it's that it's a case and so for that reason alone do we really want to bet against history yes in this case it's a positive trend it's a historic situation i hate to do it last but not least ryan and shout out to bill's mafia djinn 92 in the youtube chat for reminding me but dawson knox um just got the big contract extension his brother unfortunately passed away uh pretty randomly he's dedicating this game to his brother so add a little tragic magic potentially to this buffalo bills team dawson knox first touchdown incoming uh he could have a two touchdown game i mean if we're still doing those uh d gen type uh parlays like a dawson knox two touchdown game to me in the realm of possibilities especially if they look to give him the ball game plan him uh last bit of caution i'll throw into your there's certainly a ton of caution i'll throw into the wind before you jump off and smash through the table based on your your data source i'm seeing anywhere from 75 to 85 of the handle and around 75 percent of the bets sitting on the bills yeah which explains the line movement so not super terrifying but ryan last but not least bill's defense ranked second defensive dvoa in 2021 and second in epa success rate allowed this defense is good this defense travels i i just i don't want any part of this rams team right now the only reason i don't want to bet the rams is because of the narrative stuff everything in my gambling brain tells me this is a smash spot to tease the rams and again at this price a defending super bowl champion as a dog yeah i'm gonna unfortunately sean we're gonna disagree right off the bat give me the right taking the rams again curveball late curveball doing the prep work up in the hotel room i just i i sat there looking in the mirror and i'm like hey as a as a true contrarian a guy who loves data you can't possibly take the bills here because i bill's is that sorry to bill's mafia you guys can go to tighten up because maybe it works out for you but jesus you guys are so sure material i mean to quote the great uh the don of bill's mafia adam pelletier oj howard is so good he could start for 28 other teams so give me the rams plus the points we'll certainly be discussing this later in the teaser again i might be fading some of these later line moves let's head over to sunday sean baltimore the ravens they're heading to new york where the ravens are laying seven points minus three 10 on the money line did i typo this money line because it looks a little short on the other side plus 255 for the jets and mr joe flacco in a revenge spot 45 is the total boy i mean i know you made the case in the dfs episode sean where joe flacco is good for elijah moore yeah and in his potential production are you going to sit here with a straight face tell me you also like joe flacco in a true revenge spot catching the points here no no because i i i think i think joe flacco is pretty cooked but i think there's a world maybe where again when we do the dfs show it's about finding those like what the needle in the haystack scenarios absolutely there is a world even if even if if let's say baltimore gets out to a nice lead and then elijah moore and joe flacco connect for a ton of garbage especially ppr stuff that makes it makes more the elijah mort stack is just more about the jets just not having um any other receiving options and garrett wilson doesn't seem to even be a starter yet um and flacco i think does have some chemistry uh with those with elijah moore and that's about it i mean you look at the matchup here on the defensive side the jets linebackers in particular are very bad bad in coverage and and just bad and open space tackling which means lamar jackson rushing yards again he put on that weight so he could lower the shoulder and get back to his running ways and then mark andrews like you're gonna have to put a nickel corner on him it's gonna create opportunities for bateman um i think they're just gonna have trouble matching up with mark andrews and john harbaugh he's he's he's right up there with andy reid as far as like coaches that are really good extra time to prepare coming into week one uh harbaugh ten and four against the spread in week one games and i mean have you seen anything about robert salah that makes you excited again for me the only reason you would not take the ravens is who is who is betting on the jets right now again they are a similar case you could make almost for the rams you know you're fading the move uh this was as low as four and a half at times i think we discussed this in may at five uh so you have you have this move which let's debate it right is zach wilson worth two points over joe flacco because that's what this move is probably about positive or negative in this case vegas is indicating that potentially zach wilson's worth two positive points so that's that's question one and i think this ravens defense is going to be alive i mean if if joe flacco takes any sort of shots well and that's it and i've been drafting the ravens defense in season long uh in best ball whatever kind of version where i need a defense yeah i've been taking the ravens for that first week and it seems like they're going to have a juicy opportunity an offensive line that definitely has had problems against the defense that is looking to show like they had they had their worst year under harbaugh as a defense like this is a yeah this is a defense that's good every year they fire the defensive coordinator this is going to be a statement game we've seen the ravens come out and absolutely shred bad teams early in the season that dolphins game will never leave my mind when lamar comes out throws for five touchdowns at the podium after the game says it's not bad for a running back just an all-time long and and they said the deadline for getting the contract done is friday yeah i have a feeling they're not going to get it done they don't get it done angry lamar let's [ __ ] go yeah that's a good question are as as ravens backers which it sounds like you are as well ryan are we do we want lamar to get the contract signed on friday yes or no what do you think helps it more either keep that chip on the shoulder i i don't know yes it probably helps but in some ways i think lamar is negotiating his own contract yeah i don't think he's going to sign it and be like cool i don't got to work hard now i think he's going to sign him be like now now i'm gonna prove you [ __ ] right uh and and one other nugget ronnie stanley's back for the ravens i think that was a big issue with their offensive line not having him there so you improve the offensive line what about the running back situation for the ravens ryan you've been all over this what do we expect from them it's gonna be mike it seems like it's gonna be mike davis and yeah again another you know you can grab him late you can play him he might be a fun dfs player i know drake is there you mentioned the coverage issues for the jets linebackers i would not be surprised if we saw tyler beatty getting worked in too i mean look this is going to be an interesting game uh to understand and what this offense looks like i think it's going to look different i think they're going to be doing some different things and i think we might come away with like oh oh dear is lamar really going to have 10 carries a game like i think it's going to be lamar ronnie mark andrews and rashad bateman and i don't think the i don't think the running backs are going to be too involved martial andrew's quote isaiah likely is going to shock the world that's what mark andrews said not me really mark andrews said that about coastal carolina is a dfs tax i i'm i definitely anytime touchdown is pretty fun i might have to make a phone call to the wife across state lines to get another lineup in with isaiah likely and and reminder we're doing a prop show on uh friday and then uh tomorrow thursday we're going to be doing some uh player props for the thursday night game even more than we gave out originally some first touchdown pets for the opening night kickoff and uh also just like how to do vegas so we're going to be taping that one uh tomorrow like what two o'clock pacific run 2 30.

It's around 2 30. okay so tune into that one live youtube.com sports gaming podcast because by the time we get the uh episode out it's going to be pushing it for kickoff props will be done in the first five to 10 minutes of the show we promise so we're both on baltimore minus seven nothing better than getting someone in your dms telling you how to how to organize the show hey next time can you do that that in the beginning so i don't have to waste my time uh yeah i've also referenced baltimore later for the teaser i think moving along 10 a.m favorite teaser what could go wrong what could possibly be wrong i feel like the ravens have [ __ ] me particularly in this spot before uh but i'm looking clearly in the windshield not in that tiny little mirror they put in the middle of the car sean the browns uh oh we this was again this was a hot button game all off season the browns hailing from cleveland the great uh the great si we were just there sean love loved the airport there real easy in and out unfortunately they spent a lot of money on sean watson he will not be playing this was minus four and a half when we discussed this in meisha carolina is now a one and a half point favorite minus 125 on the money line cleveland plus 105 42 is the total now uh this is an obvious revenge spot baker has denied saying he you know he woke up feeling dangerous repeatedly and wants to absolutely [ __ ] up his old team which uh we get it no one is going to fault you for saying that but he doesn't want want them bulletin board material i get it but baker is going to be fired up it's healthy christian mccaffrey it's matt rule early in the season that rule is low-key really good in the beginning of the season yeah they started out 3-0 last year before they fell apart and that's 3-0 with sam darnold and he's still on the team ir ir so he can't play in the game again we're finding this middle ground where i'm not no one's accused me of being a baker homer or a baker sympathist but no you've hated baker i've hated baker and i thought he was kind of overrated um because he came in as like the first pick overall but now he's coming into a spot where to some degree he's underrated because even with that messed up shoulder last year he was still 11th in epa per play compare that to sam darnold which was like the [ __ ] nerd sound drop right now what are you doing the epa doesn't come in a gut no but my gut is telling me baker mayfield is gonna get up for this game i mean ryan we are going to take the browns in our survivor contest we are sorry the panthers in our survivor contest and for those wondering if you are in vegas i'll let you see it in person i brought the survivor grid this is the answer key if you if you're if you want to meet up with us you can take a photo with ryan and myself and the grid of the uh the survivor contest jacoby were set on the road ryan 8 and 20 straight up 6.08 yards per attempt love the man hate the quarterback yeah he's just a guy that i don't think there's much left in jacoby versed it's unpopular to say he sucks but he sucks he does uh because even like bridgewater i would say has a has a higher ceiling than or even even tyrod i i think at this point i would rather have than jacoby versed i mean he just stands back there doesn't give you a ton of mobility i think the uh the panthers cornerbacks i think are pretty good um that rookie they drafted last year started out to a great start and then got hurt i think jc horn with the liz frank he's gonna be back i really like that matchup and from you know following the eagles joint practices against the browns the the eagles beat writers just kept pointing out how bad the browns were especially their offensive line uh jacoby bersett inability to find people like i i think it's going to be i think they're going to be easy to defend and i think yeah you you just load the box against nick chubb and then who's going to beat you amari i like jc horn over amari honestly with jacoby versailles quarterback we discussed this they're they're going to look good against teams that will struggle to stop the run i mean that's the bottom line that's that's the way they roll so but i honestly on the other side i am slightly worried about the panthers offensive line now they drafted a quantum but i mean he's not a pass block the panthers offensive line was like struggling against the bill's backups at times so i am worried a little bit about the offensive line but ryan what do you do if you have a shitty offensive line you have a quarterback who's a willing runner with baker he's going to do everything he can uh to get a first down and then christian mccaffrey they're going to design plays to get him involved in the pass catching and then he's going to he's gonna catch how many check downs and and i was looking up a stack i i thought i had noted it down and i didn't but to the point of the browns are gonna have success when they can run the ball carolina for as bad as they were last year sean they were seventh in adjusted line yards on defense what does that tell you they they can stop the run so assuming if anything my thesis on their defense was the past like their secondary could be like they have a guy coming off an injury that's exciting but they could be shaky on the back end but good on the front end they're playing a team that's not going to threaten their back end they're going to struggle to run the ball i mean again we're i don't know if i mentioned it but it was a 80 20 game with baltimore jets this is another 80 20 game that's the thing that's that's preventing me from from saying oh absolutely oh yeah everyone knows the baker revenge spot so everyone's on carolina here carolina probably should not be the favorite uh if we're if we're being like hey this number stinks a little bit but that's fine because it's not three and we're still placing playing a money line and carolina you know matt rule is like a poor man's cliff kingsbury with his ability to start a season fast he doesn't get the six wins he gets three wins and that's about it anything else to add here no i mean i i like the panthers again i'm i'm certain chalky here but i have a bunch of contrarian stuff later on if we were in the home office there are nine early games one game would not be on god's eye is this the game cleveland carolina no because we have no because we haven't had a survivor contest the game i give the [ __ ] uh cares the least about is jacksonville commander okay all right we'll get that get to that in a second uh any other notes on this one no no no indy the colts new quarterback sean matt ryan leading the team down to houston to take on lovey smith davis mills pep hamilton in the houston texans sean we were telling you at eight yep this colts team one and 11 their last 12 openers oh and eight in the last eight straight up they've lost the game outright eight straight season sean so uh as a seven point favorite on the road minus 340 on the money line plus 270 for the texans 46 and a half is the total again this number has moved from eight to seven we've seen some seven and a halfs out there but we're picking it at seven i i mean sean this is this is an absolute smash spot i know i know you would probably say hey ryan last year the colts outscored detection 62 62-3 that's fair point revenge is on the mind and i'll i'll dare you to do it again go deep dive go watch the media availability watch the players press conference read the practice notes read the the beat reporters no one on this team is in the tank job no one the coaches they forgot to tell the texans that it's a tank job i mean i think everything that people are getting excited about the lions coaching staff and their their their giant like meat head philosophy and and everyone that thinks that's going to cause winning games what's actually happening down in houston is lovie smith is rolling out his dinosaur ass model to win games and he he got the running back right with damian pierce yeah he might have gotten the receiver right with nico collins last year wasn't him but who gives a [ __ ] works for my argument and honestly i keep saying this i'm telling people in vegas go bet houston to win the division thirty five to one thirty two one circuit thirty thirty two to one i keep telling people to do this and i keep asking them is davis mills the best quarterback in this division matt ryan why why do we think he's good agent matt ryan brian tannehill without aj brown trevor lawrence maybe there's a decent chance trevor lawrence sucks like let's be real he had he had more interceptions than touchdowns so i i give you and a lot of analytics sources yeah have the cults much closer to the texans than the mainstream non-gambling community everyone thinks all the texans are tanking they kept davis mill so he can tank and his long neck it's funny to make make fun of tank pap hamilton tank lovie smith old man beard tank okay you can say all of those things but they're closer than they uh than you think they are and oh by the way i know we just took a bunch of chalk in terms of bet percentages but the cults are receiving north of three-fourths of the money i mean and they're gonna be all people are gonna be all over the colts in their survivor picks um oh god that would just be delightful division game underdogs ryan 28 9 and one against the spread in week one since 2015.

And to your point lovey smith has this team fired up damien pierce is a legit dog so what are they going to do they're going to give damian pierce a [ __ ] ton of carries they're going to set up easy throws via play action for davis mills and they have a defense that flies around and derek stingley i think uh could be a guy that could have some impact early on even though he is a rookie now on the uh the colts defense um you know what's his name now shaquille leonard he he should be a go week one but he's coming off another injury so i can't imagine he's gonna be a hundred percent his status was up in the air it does sound like he's going to play but i can't imagine he's going to be 100 out there so that's going to make tackling damian pierce that much harder and lovey smith nine and two against the spread as a divisional underdog of seven or more points like this is a guy that can motivate bad teams and bad teams which some people believe the texans are show up week one we see this all the time they have hope they have nobody believes in us they have locker they have bulletin board material there and the colts they're starting matt pryor at left tackle and i know who matt pryor is a lot of the listeners might not he was the six round pick for the eagles uh drafted for it was drafted for offensive line depth in the sixth round as a guard like they were not planning on starting matt pryor at left tackle now maybe it works out but there's a decent chance it doesn't and i think you give a questionable left tackle to a lawn chair to pardon uh to steal the phrase from colby dan a lawn chair like matt ryan can i give you a hot take yeah jerry hughes is leading the league in sacks after week one they just got some dudes that aren't aren't here to quit yeah they aren't here for next year so uh absolutely we're gonna take the points hopefully you got a better number than seven but if not i'm still bet in seven yeah and i know the numbers that win better sometimes different than the win but i i wa on the way walking over here i got seven and a half breaking news we're picking this at seven and a half how are we gonna allow it well of course i mean if if if that's the number that's the sean i don't make the rules but if either way seven seven and a half i'm taking the colts i'm ta or i'm sorry i'm taking the texans i'm taking them on the money line too so you know circle that spoiler alert dog consideration uh loading moving along to our nation's capital doug peterson trevor lawrence coming coming back to town both of them for different reasons to spoil carson wentz's home opener carson wentz the fact that carson wentz was laying three and a half we told you it was stupid at the time fortunately people have gotten smart it's now two and a half still as a favorite minus 150 on the money line jacksonville plus 125 44 is the total this couldn't be more tailor-made for take the two and a half it's just jack this is a carson wentz mental edge to doug peterson this is a carson wentz uh got kicked out of indy because he lost to the jags last year at the end of the season and and most importantly this is a you kind of highlighted this the the washington football team aka redskins aka commanders they want to run the ball the running back room is thin right now i think brian robinson yeah he's not going to be healthy for a couple weeks it sounds like mckissack is dealing with something uh questionable tag out there gibson they wanted to get rid of him for a reason because he fumbles and you don't think that's gonna be in his head he's gonna be out there it sounds like for a bunch of the snaps now i do like the excitement of some of the like datsun and mclaren could be fun but it's super hard for me to want to run and lay points with carson wentz i think out of yeah two games here i wrote the quarterback name down as as like the first nugget of my handicap it was joe flacco and it was carson wentz i mean carson wentz in a high pressure game and i think in a weird way this certainly isn't the game to you know get them into the playoffs like last year which he completely [ __ ] up i had jack's money line you're welcome america nice it wasn't it's not like that but i think this is a high pressure situation for carson wentz i mean you saw how kind of chippy he got with that reporter in washington when they're like i didn't know i was shitty uh yeah i'm shitty i didn't know that okay all right you must be the softest dude from north dakota and you and you mentioned soft ryan and i can't imagine doug peterson doesn't have a chip on his shoulder doug peterson had a good thing going in philadelphia until until the son of a [ __ ] became clear he couldn't coach carson wentz carson wentz didn't want to take his coaching and he completely fell apart like carson wentz made doug peterson look really bad right because when when they went 4 11 and 1 it was like oh doug p's letting the offense fall apart and carson wentz was regressing and a lot of that fell on doug peterson so people thought it was doug peterson meanwhile old uh you know calling the call him the u-boat because carson went submarine seasons and that is a great uh photoshop opportunity carson wentz is a u-boat commander he has no idea what a u-boat is ah come on right now our audience says our audience knows world war ii trivia world war ii history [ __ ] the u-boats all right and [ __ ] carson wentz but he they they dropped him over in indianapolis it's like oh now he's got his buddy frank right completely [ __ ] that up i mean the the owner has like a personal grudge against him you think anyone uh you think jim irsay of all people would be sympathetic to second chances considering the shenanigans he's been involved in but even he goes uh carson wentz [ __ ] this guy and now you're with the washington commanders this is the worst place you could end up this is a team that's literally built on an ancient commander burial ground or whatever like they have they're cursed they have a gypsy curse on this team i mean explain the brian robinson thing does that happen to any if you told me there uh an nfl team had a promising draft pick that was uh that was you know hit up in a carjacking and got shot chargers are commanders chargers or commanders those would be my first two guesses chargers or raiders chargers it would be sprinkling the raiders maybe chargers it would be like um you know slipped on a banana peel and like fell down a flight of stairs it would be it was getting a flu shot and towards acl i was getting a coven vaccine and it hit his spinal cord or so like some bizarre thing where you could almost kind of laugh at it the the commanders are just sadly tragic now the doug peterson revenge game you have carson wentz in a high pressure game redskins 11 and 23 against the spread in september uh home games since 2001 the redskins has home favorites who the redskins is home favorites oh sorry commanders well they were the redskins for a long time that trend is actually a redskins trend not a commander's trend sean tr all your trends aren't relevant with this uh i mean commanders don't have any trends the the the play against the jags is pretty simple god hates jags they're not a good team i'm not super high on them how many times have we bet the jags week one and been sitting somewhere in las vegas like god damn it anytime i buy into the jags it's it's always a recipe for disaster but to be clear this is not buying into the jags this is buying into the fact that carson wentz is not a good quarterback this will be carson wentz's last year in the nfl that i feel great about wow yeah sam howell rookie of the year 90 to one on win bets you talked me into it still there if you want to take a little value before carson wentz loses the job uh and we have our first game sean with a a pretty significant uh split between where the bets are coming in and where their dollars are coming in even though the lines moved we're still seeing more north of two-thirds of the money on the jags while almost 60 of the tickets are on the commanders i can't make sense of any of this i don't know who's running to take carson do you think all the nfl fans realize carson wentz is starting for the washington football team i i yeah i i don't know i mean i like the jags all right uh ryan you know what else they like foobo tv fubo tv gives you complete coverage of college and nfl football you got the red zone plus games in 4k at no extra charge over 100 channels live sports and entertainment for a fraction of the price of cable watch on all your devices never miss a game or an episode of your favorite show with the included cloud-based dvr uh highly recommended i know colby is a big dvr guy literally we watch all games live and then dvr's all them and then during the week goes back and watches them a bunch and again if you're hardcore football you got to get fubo tv uh you can try it now free for seven days fubotv you get 15 off your first month and seven days free just go to fubu tv sgp that's fubotv.com sgp we're also brought to you by promoguy.us again as a better you're always looking for ways to increase your betting value and your bankroll aka promoguey.us promo guide us you can get the biggest bonuses from all the best sportsbooks in the country i mean thousand dollar risk free deposits insane odd boosts and most importantly the best analytics in the summer plus tons of free picks as well promoguey.us is your guide to bettingsmart once again promoguy.us ryan unfortunately i have some bad news smooth sack summer is slowly coming to an end no no that's right i know everyone thought smooth sack summer the summer of love it would never it would never end those pubes would never grow back in but unfortunately it is coming to an end but the good news is fresh ball fall right around the corner that's right get your sacks smelling like a pumpkin spice latte they actually i mean someone are you reading someone got went to college for four years gotta got a job in advertising and marketing so they could so they could come up with fresh ball fall and uh you how you'll be smelling fresher than your girl's pumpkin spice i i mean i that would be awesome hey sweetheart pumpkin spice latte season aka my sweaty ball sack but hey your ballsack smells good it's clean and thank god for manscaped.com 20 off and free worldwide shipping so again to our uh fans down under aka the australians who again i'm sure i'm sure they enjoy some town under activity as well double entendre free worldwide shipping with the code sgp at manscape.com we all have had a horrible personal grooming experiences i know again i mean back in my college days dating myself but you get those uh regular scissors and you're trying to get under there with like a oh what are you doing with scissors well and it was it was pretty manscaping right i was living in the dark ages we didn't have a lawnmower 4.0 we didn't have a 7000 rpm motor we didn't have a 4000k led spotlight kids don't easy they don't know how easy they have it for smooth sac summer and um uh smooth uh fresh fall fall sorry gonna say sean it's not trendy to wear a smooth set of balls after labor day yes that's when you want them fresh and smelling like pumpkins well you can't wear white with your smooth balls after labor day that is the rule uh promo code sgp manscaped.com 20 off and free shipping with their code uh again i i use the manscape stuff all the time highly highly recommend it and again if you guys want to keep hearing the manscape.com reads you gotta you gotta put in some orders yeah uh people like the manscape reads i i guess um i don't know i i uh i guess we should just move on speaking of uh speaking of smooth balls head in miami where the the double-headed monster triple-headed monster of mack jones matt patricia and joe judge look to take a take down uh [ __ ] weirdo mike mcdaniel and this tua led miami dolphins team who are laying three and a half sean minus 180 on the money line patriots plus 150 47 is the total the mack attack it's two times as uh glorious when joe judge and matt patricia are in your headset together matt patricia of course sean as you have repeatedly let us know once tried to write on a laminated sheet with a pencil well he he wears a pencil behind his ear and has a laminated play shirt meanwhile the broadcast team will remind you he went to school for [ __ ] like rocket science or something yeah clearly he didn't do very good at that he's coaching football i mean if that guy's in charge of the rockets uh maybe the maybe the challenger uh i don't know i'm not i'm not believing the problem the problem is these are two teams i don't want to bet on uh especially week one i mean i'll say this bill belichick there there's a lot going in his favor 21 and 13 against the spread with extra time to prepare check uh bill belichick versus a rookie head coach he dominates two things right rookie quarterbacks and rookie head coaches he's won his last 11 games against a rookie head coach last head coach to defeat him you have to go back to jim caldwell in 2009 and that was more about peyton manning probably in his prime you know they really want you to take the pats plus three and a half but are you really gonna back tua and also this is a weird nugget i don't know how much it applies but patriots have won the first matchup and the dolphins have won the second matchup in nine of the last 10 meetings the only time it hasn't happened i think was last year because i know because i locked up the patriots at home laying three and the uh damian harris was about to score the touchdown to ice it and cash medlock fumbled near the goal line and the uh the dolphins got their one win and then lost seven in a row don't we need to see what happens when josh mcdaniels isn't there anymore no and that's that's certainly scary too so i trust i've read enough and i trust that uh the dolphins will have a a like the offense will work i trust their offense will work i don't know if tool will look good throwing the ball down the field but i trust that their offense will work and it's worth noting the temperature in the greater new england area near where the patriots practice is is has been in the low 70s to mid 70s lately it's 93 projected to be 93 with a hundred percent humidity on sunday breaking news patriots went down early this week they've been practicing in the heat and humidity all week to prepare them for this game so uh well i'm sure all our listeners in the new england area appreciate the weather report doesn't apply to this game because they've been going down there sweating their asses off getting ready for this game i'm almost plus yeah we recently went to canton canton ohio yep uh on day three were you any more acclimated to the horrible humidity yep no no you weren't yes stop it you were the only you lay the three just become a crazy old man where like you're even noticing like las vegas heat and humidity you claim it's humid in in in l.a it's been very humid but if we live in an arid desert and ryan's right i'm going to call you ryan real barometer kramer over here because any sort of like call me the weather man slight adjustment you are uh you are you are totally noticing it and and to be clear to the the person who was uh i'm i'm joking right now i'm when i'm making fun of ryan it doesn't mean i'm actually mad at him i like i don't want him to i don't want the one listener to set that in to think we're in a fight right i'm on new england plus three and a half i wish there was an option to bet against both these teams uh i would take that option but uh yeah you can't i mean as much as you're probably right you shouldn't lay three and a half with tua oh they're gonna i i mean i'm looking at your point they could totally wilt in that second half heat with those blue jerseys attracting a ton of heat i i get it i guess this is a this is a primary fade of i mean sean we were all over it all off season matt patricia's calling the offensive place come on dude you know better miami minus three and a half and you know to take too late three and a half i'll take it new orleans there's a lot a lot of good nuggets there right nor nolan's the saints they're heading down to atlanta or maybe up to atlanta atlanta plus five and hate week 80 185 is the money line minus 225 for the saints 42 and a half is the total love jamis love my falcons feel a little bit like my kids are fighting here but once again i'm just gonna lean into this point they call it hate week it's a rivalry i know that new orleans has had some recent success yeah but four and one against the spread last five against atlanta six and one against the spread when playing in atlanta again i i don't like the angle of taking a road division favorite especially week one i had already mentioned that trend but head coach saints really have the falcons number 14 and three straight up um or no sorry they've done well in the nfc south i mean some of that's been their dominance brady but 14-3 straight up last 17 division games in the nfc south uh falcons do have some decent cornerbacks so i think matchup wise that's pretty interesting could set up for a pretty good game for kamara uh for jameis who i know typically doesn't throw a ton yes i am worried about trevor penning like i think there's still some questions for the saints offensive line i'm going back and forth here because i'm i'm out on the falcons as a season but i could certainly see them covering here as a home dog i mean i think you know at the end of the day the the these teams tend to play i mean shout out to the chat they do tend to play weird games uh research earth throwing that out there and and i i just as a position while i have gained some momentum being a little bit more bullish on the saints than when i started the process i think they are another team as much as i want jameis to work and as much as i threw jameis in the in the stack uh because i do think there's gonna be some point if you look at the history of these games they score points i mean they very rarely are short of 50 in these games so i i do think the way these two teams profile i want to be high on atlanta i do want to be high on new orleans but just from a point spread perspective it's too much and and it's clearly an issue it's clearly you know one of these numbers where they're not expecting to take a lot of atlanta action and i do wonder if i should wait on this if it's going to grow a little bit uh because again who's betting atlanta right now who's saying i'll take i'll take atlanta i think the the division home dog trend uh is what won me over i i do think new orleans is going to be able to put up some points so i i'm begrudgingly taking atlanta here but i yeah my concern is you know new orleans is going to be able to stop the run they could just completely throttle them uh this i i there are versions of this game where new orleans is is fine and they blow him out but i you know i think we're just glossing over the fact that the sean again sean payton no longer in the building to craft up a beautiful offense for uh taysom hill and james yeah i mean again it's less about me being super high on um on arthur smith because i am i'm not really high on it but it's going to be like a 26 to 24 game there's going to be a weird score there's going to be something that happens there's going to be a weird score here i do like this game like for for a game that has a total around 42 and a half sean i do like it in dfs more than the total would suggest really yeah okay again i i threw out james a jameis double stack with a pitts bring back i think there's going to be some points out there i i do wonder if there's going to some something bearcats in the youtube chat pointing out ryan drinking a perrier like a real frenchman can we trust his picks wow see we're in a fight again now we're definitely in a fight again philly the eagles speaking of uh absolute trash uh they're heading to detroit detroit is four point home dogs plus 165 on the money line philly minus 200 48 and a half is the total do we extend the fade the hard knocks trend into the regular season or are we at least wondering if it's safe to lay four points with jalen hurts on the road here eagles do profile to me as a team that will take care of the trash and the way they they the way their offense works i think when things are going good things can kind of tend to to slide and and they're going to be able to score when they score and when they struggle it's going to be because the teams are the defenses are slowing down the running game and jalen hurts hasn't evolved as a passer so in this matchup what is detroit not good at stopping the run i think i don't know if jalen hurts his arm is going to be tested a ton i'm excited to see what the the lions can do on the other side of the ball offensively but i think but why why are you excited because last because they're going to be i think they're going to be losing by a bunch of points in this game and i'm curious to see how my fantasy investments are going to pan out uh because this is the kind of game script that i think is why you were willing to take a stab at a lot of these these lions for example yeah i mean um a lot to get to i think the biggest news is big v right tackle for the detroit lions is out he's on ir so now you have a revamped eagles pass rush a password that sacked jared goff four five times last time they played i mean the eagles came into detroit last year and pushed him around beat them 44-6 shout out to this guy fist pump and he's got his conference badge on but he's a d-gen uh eagles beat them 44-6 last year i just don't know what has really changed uh since last year the lines drafted aiden hutchinson i like lane johnson to be able to mitigate his pass rush a little bit there um dan campbell took over play calling duties in week 10.

I don't know if that's really necessarily helped the offense golf 38th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks in adot last season 38 teams in the league no but somehow jared goff is 38 there uh jared goff's stat a bunch of garbage time they lost 44-6 a 25 out of 34 222 passing yards zero touchdowns zero interceptions i think the eagles have improved quietly one of the groups that i think has really improved a lot is their linebacker group so i think that's going to help cover uh tj hawkinson and help mitigate deandre swift uh bradbury now our second quarterback like i think the eagles defenses could be the story here um and i just don't see how the lions compete in the trenches here it's certainly in all hype or there's at least you're gonna deny the eagles hype but there's certainly like this is one of the games you circle as as a game that i'm definitely interested in whether it be fantasy or just you know the outcome of this game will be like oh yeah cool eagles win by 28 points this is an interesting season or on the flip side the lions come out maybe they play some defense uh to me the only scary part about this one and laying the points with the eagles is the classic uh tilt on the bets but it's not ac as crazy as i thought it was going to be well i think in the hard knocks i mean we had derek stevens friend of the program on and he was like yeah that sneaky underdog well sal lions to win outright so i think the lions are getting some sexy dog talk themselves yeah and while i mean the the you know noted uh nerds online have restored detroit projecting as this really good team i i don't they don't pass the eye test to me we've seen them and maybe if i liked some of the things they've done they still have a massive whole quarterback we still have jared goff jared goff sucks island uh i think our rentals have have we opened up is the website back up so we can uh take reservations uh for the upcoming season because i think it's gonna be a great season over there yeah what i was gonna say is uh it's moved from four and a half to four and so i'm a little worried about the eagle split they're getting more of the bets so the the hard knocks hype maybe not completely valid because we are seeing a lot of eagles money there are a lot of sharp smart people that like the eagles just as much as they like the lions and so yeah it will be an interesting one but there's no way i mean the philadelphia eagles are just gonna flat out kick their [ __ ] ass let's be honest 31 to 17 aj brown who can tackle aj brown in the secondary you're making me want to pick against the eagles now i was gonna pick the eagles but now you're being obnoxious don't don't do me any favors dude you're being obnoxious hey aj brown the catch and run ability with aj brown is massive all right yes no you lay the points again i lied earlier when i said there was two quarterbacks i was fading it's there's a third it's jared goff uh i i a little worried about the number here but i think the eagles should roll all right but two more games in the early slate pittsburgh heading to cincy bangles minus six and a half minus 280 on the money line plus 225 for the steelers 44 and a half is the total ah i mean division dogs let's go well not only that super bowl losers yeah super bowl losers i don't know what number you have ryan but i'm showing 5 and 21 against the spread in their first game following this season sure it's similar maybe a different length the point being it's it's a strong fade it's a strong fade and you know i like this bengals team to go over nine and a half wins i still like the steelers maybe as that surprise uh division winner that we've been talking about bengals got swept uh or sorry steelers got swept by the bengals last year so they i think this is a massive revenge spot and i think their offense is a lot better even with mitch trubisky i think is a step up from ben roethlisberger you have george pickens you have pat friermuth who um i think is really turned into a nice piece for them and najee harris completely fresh mike tomlin as an underdog a big reason why i'm confident on this on the steelers team and in this game is mike tomlin he's a really good head coach 45 and 24 against the spread as an underdog i mean mike tomlin is a true you're giving mike tomlin points mike tomlin figures out how to win games i mean he won games with mason rudolph put that on his tombstone this steelers team is going to figure it out and i think they can bring some pressure with t.j watt again i i'm splitting hairs here because i do like this bengals team i think they've improved their offensive line and i maybe they start a little slow and in particular this game joe burrow he's coming back from an appendix he lost 20 pounds like i'm not one who's going to doubt stogie joe joe burrow but i think it might be a little slow start for this bengals team i think if you're a bengals fan you're slightly worried about this game it's a hangover play right yeah it's the bottom line i mean at the end of the day it's it's no different i mean it's part of the reason why you want to fade the rams right you have all of these reasons like when teams play deep in the season i get it they lost they're hungry but when teams play deep in the season they play deep in the season they play more games and especially in this spot there's a reason there's a super bowl loser trend it's not as popular as the winner trend but it's a it's a pretty similar inverted like it's a fade and you know you add all of that into the fact that the steelers are one of the most underrated teams coming into the season do i love the idea of mitch trubisky running around dumping it off to najee harris seeing a nice play from george i i think i think i think i think this steelers offense creates a lot of easy options i mean you watch george pickens like you just throw it in that guy's zip code and he catches the ball right like you're very high on it and pat friarmuth same same thing like a massive catch radius and even like deontay johnson i just don't think to take advantage of the steelers weapons you have to be this amazing quarterback i think the steelers have built some skills saying big ben wasn't amazing yeah yeah i know so no and and they still figured out a way to win nine games right yeah i mean to me this is the number um you know will it get to seven maybe is the the only question we really have to ask ourselves like is it is it is it time to bet it now we do see 70 of the bets and tickets coming in on the bangles so i would estimate this might get to seven no and and i guess if you're if you're a bengals backer you think joe burrows going to come out uh light it up aggressively passing the ball you know i i like brian flores on this added to this defensive um defensive coaching scheme and i think they're well coached overall i think this just could be a little bit of a wake-up game for the bengals i i think i'm high on the bengals for the season but i think they could be in trouble week one ryan i i would go as far to say like that go find me the game i know they i know they blew out the steelers last year but find me they like they didn't win a ton of games uh by massive spreads shout out to cousin bush cousin mush in the house colby or uh terrell if you guys are around like cousin bush in uh sean doing some direction as well all right last of the early games san francisco the 49ers they're heading to chicago the bears bears plus seven plus 225 on the money line minus 320 for the niners 42 is the total in a game in a game played between two teams i want nothing to do with how can you possibly not just take the points i i mean all right so obviously i'm comically higher than market on uh justin fields in the chicago bears but this bears team there's just so much revenge talk um between trey land oh sorry like justin fields views this is a revenge game he's trying to downplay it but darnell mooney goes the 49ers are going to regret not drafting uh not drafting uh justin fields and drafting trey lance i mean you look at mike shanahan nine and six against the spread as a favorite of three and a half or more like this team this 49ers team um they kind of remind me of the eagles in a lot of ways like they're good at exceeding expectations but if they come in with a lot of hype that's when they create moments where they're they're disappointing now certainly i'm obviously super worried about both versus despair's offensive line i think that is a game or that's a matchup that could destroy this game right if if bosa goes off and creates some strip sack opportunities then i'm really worried about um this game but i'll say this just number five adjusted sack rate number two adjusted line yards last year not much reason to think they're going to change um uh justin field scrambled at the second highest rate in the nfl last season so i think he's going to be on the move this is a must win for the chicago bears team and you know let's be honest i mean matt eberflu who is the defensive coordinator he put out a pretty good game plan to shut down the 49ers now i know it was with the colts but they went into san francisco last year and held the 49ers to 18 points that was with jimmy g who i have as a better thrower and uh than than one trey lance and breaking news george kittle got injured this week right george kittle is injured his status is up in the air so kittle a guy who could really be a game changer offensively give trey lance a bunch of easy throws he's out last but not least trey lance is not among the captains of the team oh here it is trey lance is not the captain does that really matter to anyone am i crazy the locker room is not buying in management is not buying in and we're supposed to buy in is minus seven road favorites what am i what are we talking about this is just a dog spot there's gonna be some dirty dogs going down here chicago i think they're they're like a poor man's carolina they can show up early on in the season and i i love this spot for them yeah to elaborate george kittle groin did not practice on a wednesday that's never good obviously still time but groins uh they tend to take some time sean as you were mentioning earlier perhaps he's and i may have called him mike shanahan not the same guy right okay i mean they have some of the same and i don't have the exact nuggets but them is like you know kyle is a road favorite is just not good and and really why is kyle shanahan not good as a road favorite because he's never had an elite quarterback right like jimmy g is a good guy as a dog and good against the against the spread overall but to cover spreads as a road favorite you need an elite quarterback he's never had that right no i mean it's it's the classic like you have to over perform the expectation and it's easy to over perform expectation when you're a small dog i hate the bears i hate justin fields i think he's gonna be trash i i do think man if there's ever a team that could win and cover a spread of seven points without a quarterback it's the 49ers in this spot but it's two defenses it's clear under under game i don't know how you can yeah the how is trey lance again george kittle makes this offense go how is trey lance going to do this uh yardage totals for this weekend brandon iuke has a higher prop total than debo samuel as well so fun nugget there but uh all day chicago blindly this is the gross dog i might even maybe this becomes my dog because it's the grossest dog i i can't i just can't ryan uh you mentioned yardage props and if you're looking to get down on some yardage props head over to sleeper.com s g p that's right you know sleeper normally for fantasy but now you can know them for over under betting it is uh it is so fun to tie together these player prop harleys and kramer uh showed pulled up the screen our sgpn dynasty our week one game not only does it have your your matchups there but then also right underneath there has the over under built into it this thing is truly awesome and they got college football player props uh we gave out some of our favorite ones earlier on in the dffs episode we're gonna give out some more on the friday uh pix uh props episode as well for the nfl and again you guys know how to play over under i'm not gonna insult your intelligence by explaining how to play over under but it's a real eevee opportunity to go to sleeper.com sgp you can copy each other's pics um i think there was fantasy football bourbon dude which if i had a guest probably our buddy j mark from the fantasy pod i hit copy on his picks uh they're just so fun to play and you get 100 deposit match up to 100 if you already have sleeper just hit over under promo code sgp and go to sleeper.com sgp so they know we sent you and so you get into the group chat uh it's a lot of fun terms and conditions apply c sleepers terms of use for details ryan have you entered our nfl survivor contest yet yes well you should uh we're partnering up with run your pool and i already got my pick in i know a lot of the sgp guys i've already got their picks in for the nfl survivor do not miss out on this contest one run your pool is awesome to run your pool obviously pick pick'm survivor fantasy fully customizable it really is your one stop shop for running a pool i've run a ton of pools over the years with run your pool even was running with them uh before we got hooked up as a sponsor we're giving away 500 cash and a 250 gift certificate to the sgpn store to the winner again massive overlay here zero dollars to enter 500 cash and a 250 gift certificate to the sgpn store for the winner all you got to do is sign up for a contest play dot run your pool dot com slash sgpn that's play dot run your pool dot com slash sgpn they have you covered get in over there uh reserve your spot get the 500 cash 250 gift card last but not least odds trader odds trader is your one stop shop when it comes to comparing odds getting the latest on injury reports game day weather live play-by-play updates live odds it's just awesome to have uh you know a one-stop shop your number one site for all your game day bets just go to oddstrader.com bluewire dot com odstrader.com blue wire get started today and make it part of your pregame ritual oddstrader.com bluewire crane dog home stretch let's go you didn't even mention the massive overlay in the survivor contest sean i did massive over now i mentioned it twice you were playing blackjack over there that's true i was 479 or 329 people have made their picks if you want the exact number all right afternoon slate green bay the packers aaron rodgers aka nick cage gonna be taking on kirk cousins uh we've seen this movie before kirk cousins the vikings plus one and a half in the spaceship little worried there plus 105 on the money line minus 125 for the packers 46 and a half is the total we we thought this would go to three we were fools somehow people are getting excited about the vikings uh aaron rodgers and the green bay packers i know i'm i'm squinting into my rear view here 13 wins back back to back seasons mvps yeah back-to-back seasons i i don't see a world at one and a half this is a moneyline play i don't see a world they don't come out with fire and take it to this this team that is again coach turnover no we know the offense we think the offense is going to take a step forward we get that angle but i also think the defense is going to take a step back and when you're taking on aaron rodgers i don't give a [ __ ] about davonte adams he was worth half a point yeah like maybe a point like relax ryan what what matters more when setting spreads how long have we been doing this spreads win totals over a decade john yeah 11 years again happy 11 year anniversary uh are we still fighting um the sip of my perrier david bach tiari ryan what matters more your left tackle or your number one receiver it's your left tackle by a mile not enough people are talking about the return of david bakhtiari he's finally healthy and he's finally back for the packers you give me a healthy offensive line and the other thing i think that's getting underrated in this season and maybe i even um i was on the over on the packers but as far as like the playoff run uh i am still skeptical of regular season rogers but this packers defense is really good like i i think this packers defense could be like a top five uh defense and you know maybe jefferson and and thielen you know they they see some stuff they don't know how to cover whatever i i don't think they're going to get lit up like i i if the if the vikings get to 30 points i'm i'm surprised because the more i think about it the more i like these matchups for the packers defense and i i think aaron rodgers you give him a good offensive line he's gonna figure something out with these receivers throwing the ball to aaron jones i mean aaron jones could be the number one pass catcher of this group the reason you would believe the vikings can get this done is that they have some sort of scheme to confuse at rogers or much like when rogers came down to jacksonville last year and gave zero [ __ ] about that game maybe he doesn't care for minnesota much and he's just going to mail it in but if you believe he's going to show up it's really really hard for me to see a world where this defense is going to have him tricked and he and he isn't going to be able to expose their the vikings and you know trend wise obviously the vikings usually do show up against the packers at home in the spaceship it's a tough place to win chad is pointing out this is your home dog division angle yeah but i mean again under one and a one and a half points call us old-fashioned sean i i call me old-fashioned i'm not i'm not taking kirk cousins no it's not prime time but it's week one it's almost prime time well and who knows if he you know he acknowledges daylight savings time i could see him being on some weird stuff um man walks in the bar man says i'm betting on kirk cousins over aaron rodgers yeah you know sometimes when we're like going back and forth between these two games which game will i feel like a bigger [ __ ] like which which result will i feel like a bigger [ __ ] if i bet on aaron rodgers as a small road favorite and he loses or if i bet on kirk cousins going against aaron rodgers and that loses which one will will i feel a bigger like feel to be the bigger [ __ ] yeah i think i aaron rodgers 120 and 79 ats since 2009.

the guy covers spreads i mean i again i i see i see the angle i i think two in too many of these games we we had a lot of coaching turnover last year and i think in too many of these games where the coaching turnover happened we're not allowing for it to affect they only play three freezing preseason games they don't have as much time in the practice green bay has started slow uh research flat earth pointing out the the packers got cooked last year 38 to 3.

that was i would say jacksonville yeah circumstances randomly they played the game in florida uh because what was it was something with the superdome yeah classic situation the city of new orleans can't get their uh their building code up to code so they got to move the game yeah it was a weather thing i think but yeah i mean it it was just a weird spot it's hard to reference that game as well but i mentioned packers have started slow at times but then your handicap is aaron rodgers just going to not show up yeah i don't got that the shitty handicap he's been on too many goddamn podcasts promoting his revenge tour hey i was right about psychedelics i was right about the vaccine and i'm going to be right about not needing devante adams like he's he's got too much invested in this week one you know what i mean like he's put himself out there way too much to to to come up with the zero in this game um uh we're a pro aaron rodgers podcast this season aaron whenever you're ready feel free to call in yeah and his third eye that he opened up with ayahuasca was great great at picking up uh blitzes ceo defenders love third eyes yeah kansas city head in arizona head in the to the desert hopefully they don't have issues with the dry dry air out here kansas city is uh this was three it's now six minus 260 on the money line arizona plus 210 54 is the total i'm not really sure what the line movement's about this is a kansas city team i've gained some uh well we'll call it artificial highness on i'm very excited for them more excited than i could have ever imagined i'm also excited for the chiefs team this is a very fun game obviously circle it this is a dfs game highest point total on the board i just don't understand how kyler and cliff kingsbury who seemed to be getting along kyler is in the call of duty revenge tour he's clearly butt hurt that people called him out on his favorite thing to do which is play video games he's now going to focus on his second favorite thing which is throwing footballs i just don't understand why this is a six-point spread kingsbury does well early in the season they always come out of the the pre-season with some nice looks uh some new adjustments to the air raid and you know it sounds like erz is going to play i know d-hop is out but erz is going to be there um it does seem like this is too crazy like when it was under three or three i i liked it it is creeping up but then really ryan i was gonna take arizona as a three-point home dog oh you were okay i think i still will take the chiefs although i i certainly love it way less now that it's it's shot up to six to me our car loftus the pass rush again we talk about teams in fu mode i think i think patrick mahomes i think andy reid andy reid with extra time to prepare andy reid six and three ats week one andy reid versus cliff kingsbury both with extra time to prepare i'm taking andy reid all day and again coming back to pictures my homes uh 30 and 21 ats when not favored by double digits like he's a guy who covers road favorite spreads um i think i think kelsey and juju have a big game and i think they get this done i i i don't mention of how bad they were last year ats i i i do think no no and and certainly i'm scared of this six uh but i think i think we like it's almost like the market forgot what happened last year and it's just pushing the chiefs out ahead again because it's we're about to play football and it's patrick mahomes yeah again circle this as one of the games uh you know i like to bring up the 80 20 games 80 on on the chiefs here as the road chalk you know if if you're asking me to identify like which of the public you know the quote unquote public games uh would i am i looking to fade the most this might be it because like arizona actually has an offense i think they can win a shootout with the chiefs i think they can win multiple versions of this game and i think people aren't giving enough credit to how well this team has started seasons over the last couple years with kingsbury and kyler so ah man i'm leaning in i think the unpopular dog splits with him without uh d-hop is enough to scare me off okay and and and i think patrick mahomes has heard a lot about how tyree kill was the reason this offense was successful that's fair what are they gonna do without tyree kill i put up 40 points in arizona uh college bff hollywood brown has joined the fold though we don't know what they look like together so maybe d-hop isn't needed anymore raiders yeah raiders heading to los angeles for another [Music] uh it is a neutral site for them these home games and so far chargers laying three and a half minus 190 on the money line plus 155 for the raiders 52 is the total raters [Music] you you're saying buffalo's gonna feel like a home yeah the [ __ ] raiders are you kidding me go to a bar in la when the game's on it's obnoxious it's like you guys are down 30 points right or who's stopping devonta adams jc jackson jc jackson um doesn't look like he's gonna play or if he is he's certainly nowhere near a hundred percent um not having him in the secondary is gonna be huge now maybe the pass rush you got bosa um you got khalil mack i i think if the chargers cover it's because of that stuff but um yeah chargers just haven't been good at home ats or as a favorite 15 and 22 against the spread in los angeles and then herbert five and nine against the spread is a favorite of minus three or more like as as much as people love herbert and it's hard to you know really [ __ ] on his game he hasn't gotten to that elite level yet where they're covering as a massive favorite and this isn't a massive favorite but uh you know i think i think vegas is gonna be in this game i don't see them getting blown out i i don't like the raiders overall for the season but i do like them week one in los angeles i mean we just watched this game this was the last regular season game it feels like this is going to come down to a field goal game why would you not want to take the three and a half and i'm sure you know the chargers are going to [ __ ] up and miss a field goal there's going to be one snap over someone's head all the weird breaks are going to go against the chargers yeah i mean this is pure fade the chargers at home especially when the raiders are coming to town and as much as i you know i think the number is probably right and you're supposed to lay the three and a half sean not take the three and a half but in this case i again much like the cardinals the raiders are a team that i want to be a little bit bought into this is a perfect situation when we walk through the schedule we everyone said even the guy who's not high on them i love this situation even uh super fan justin decker was like oh yeah the raiders are going to beat the chargers week one that's that's just the way it's going to work so uh you want to talk about a road home game the raiders will have this stadium the raiders will have the crowd and i will take the three and a half here i'll join you we've agreed we've agreed a decent amount for week one john yeah probably because we've been talking terrell was asking in the chat where i got my chain uh my wife got it from etsy i'm not sure how that has anything to do with the raiders chargers game but thank you um i like answering the the questions on youtube right you you wrote down some questions for terrell to ask during the no i did not all right last of the late slate uh how glorious they gave me a giants afternoon kick baby the giants heading to tennessee where this number is tennessee minus five and a half minus 260 on the money line plus 210 for the giants 44 is the total uh this this was six and a half earlier in the process sean so people are all dying all that giant brian table hype they're brian into the mike kafka hype the bride the dan jones hype saquon's back the offense is going to be electric they're going to be moving before the snap john innovative um and oh my goodness wait what's this 75 percent of tickets but only 50 of the money on the titans oh yeah could the giants be a sharp side week one oh yeah oh yeah this is definitely the uh square sharp of the day i mean ryan you and terrell were just talking about how you're worried about austin hooper you're you're fading this giant's defense i just don't see how dare you [ __ ] that was a private conversation and the giants offense like the receivers they can't get a healthy receiver to save their life um titans 28 and 18 against the spread not in conference home games i i think you the giants are just going to get a heavy dose of the big dog himself derek henry i mean derek henry could have 35 touches in this game and i don't see anyone on the giants defense slowing him down dexter lawrence leonard will i i do think they're going to make the titans run the outside so we'll see how it goes i think the titans defense is better than people giving them credit for and i'm willing to fade daniel jones on the right yeah just so we're going to recap we're gonna lay five and a half with hashtag team ryan tannehill with malik willis breathing down his neck yeah with a uh relatively depleted offense wide receiver two was having asthma problems we're just forgetting about all we're swiping all this narrative stuff over here so i can do this giant hate narrative here giants uh daniel jones on the road 5 and 14.

i got how many of those games was he playing with mike kafka and brian table [Laughter] so many of them coach is gonna did he have tyrod taylor mentoring him through the process not like ryan tannehill that [ __ ] who won't help malik willis along his process tyrod there to help chris uh dan jones say his name that's all i got i'm taking the giants yeah i mean even ryan who loves pulling some great numbers he's struggling to come up with like a reason why you should actually bet the giants every year we do this every year you come to every year i bet against the giants and every year it works out every year you come to the week one show with all these numbers and i tell you numbers are [ __ ] week one you're looking in the rear view so i'm coming i'm the gut handicapper i'm telling you about this giants team look was davis webb on the team last year no he was not wait what is davis webb going to do project davis webb's statlock coach he's going to dan jones this is our year the giants offense is just really banged up you could talk me into the giants offense maybe making a step forward ryan if they weren't so banged up just let me have this [ __ ] off i'm gonna be disappointed on sunday then you can smile okay we can talk about it sunday night giants giants on the money line in the past decade giants division plus 900 still pretty juicy worst team in the past day we're not talking about the past decade sean okay sunday night and we're now we're in a fight again sunday night tampa heading to dallas a little rematch from week one last year the bucks minus two and a half on the road cowboys plus 120 minus 145 for the buccaneers 51 is the total i don't really know what to think about this one um you know the the bucks a lot of question tom brady some marital issues sounds like wife not happy he's back to playing football the pressure of coming home and not having support from your wife that's got to be horrible uh gotta wonder if the open mouth kisses with the kids are off the table now we know tom really liked that it also seems like maybe he's needed a little bit more regenerative work with his uh stem cell habits uh and his trips to germany uh aka tb12 uh all of that being said cowboys signed a street free agent to start at left tackle that being said mike mccarthy is one of the shortest odds first second fired that being said cd lamb might not be an alpha dog and they let cooper cup walk out the door for pennies on the team i am right there uh look i i i see i get it you're gonna be like hey ryan the cowboys scored a lot of points last year they were number one in the league cool that was last year this year defense regresses immediately i mean again the turnover differential is what kept dallas in games what kept their defense quoted quote elite was that they kept turning people over i mean we can beat a dead horse aka the trayvon dig story where he gave up so many passes so many yards but was still a productive quarterback because of the interceptions now if he intercepts tom brady two times like they did last time uh to start up the season maybe they don't get that uh maybe they don't get the cover but i mean the spread was way bigger last time too and shout out to me who got that amazing uh selfie in front of the uh the cowboys fans that were crying that was a pretty great start to the nfl i know you're supposed to take the two and a half and i'm sure people will tease the cowboys none of that no way in the points tampa minus two and a half oh i hate this game i hate that it's sunday night yeah what's the first touchdown uh kdot oh yeah let's go all right all over the box here i mean uh if you're new to the show we don't like the cowboys uh [ __ ] dallas dallas sucks and that is a disgusting app you got the glory hole if you're looking for a uh no but i have some uh let me see then he pulls out and it's just hard it's been a while since he's seen a hole that big he almost didn't know what to do these conference people looking in speaking of holes i i think the uh there's going to be a ton of holes on that dallas cowboys offensive line football aside like all jokes aside tampa bay's defensive line is going to be able to pressure dakota rain prescott and i think that's the difference in the game and i'm sorry i got distracted for a second because uh shout out to dick gerthsberger in the chat he was uh pointing out that uh this is year two of his annual tradition of watching the giants versus the ram sim game from a couple years ago where the the giants lost 44 to 2.

That was amazing that was a great sim card we should find that and post it somewhere that that was a fun uh that was a fun get up all right monday night football uh we're almost done sean the broncos minus six and a half russ little revenge heading back to seattle minus 290 on the money line plus 230 4p carol and the boys 45 is the total this keeps growing and growing and growing this game is one of the hardest games to predict this is easy to me this is easy yeah this is just like the bearish game you can't lay the points in denver i mean russell wilson's coming back he's going to be in fu mode apparently he was livid at pete carroll for submarining his his shot to get mvp um but i think pete carroll also motivated and gino smith with those receivers maybe not horrible i'm slightly higher than the rest of the market on seattle as a team i think they can get to seven wins i i think i'm going to have to take the the seahawks here as the massive home dog and you want to talk about money splits ryan i mean i'm seeing like 90 10 for this game no one's betting this year no seahawks are the ugliest dogs on the board yeah we're gonna have some fun round robin opportunities here uh i already got my round robin so yeah and just to recap that the 80 20 teams for this week broncos getting 95 chiefs getting 80.

saints getting 87. i don't think i mentioned that yeah uh panthers getting 80 and ravens getting 86. so you got to pick your spots here but seattle i think man i i just think it's going to be tough for denver's offense to be completely fired on all cylinders there's not much of a handicap here i think this is an insane number we love denver early in the season the elevation angle um i mean this is the absolute i used to use this angle with fuente fuente always had a hype coach can get a team ready for week one and i think pete carroll will have this squad ready again this is this is a little bit like uh you know tom brady coming back to new england you know who wants it more i i wonder because we've heard so many rumbles of this denver offense might not be there yeah or at least and i do think they get it right overall but but to lamb as a six and a half point favorite week one before you've seen anything no thank you give me seattle that's a seahawk baby all right we made it do it time for the lockdog teams presented by windbed sportsgivingpodcast.com win bet kramer you have the honors lock houston houston plus seven and a half dog what do you got dog steelers plus 225.

love it t's rams up to eight and a half okay ravens down to one okay back forth back forth you mean jacksonville up to eight and a half long would be proud of you ryan uh trying to stay within the parade bonus lock two locks yeah we moved to use uh come on baltimore minus seven all right okay here we go for my lock wait can i make an adjustment um what do you want to do well i just realized that that i didn't one of my favorite plays isn't didn't make the card scratch pittsburgh give me arizona okay plus 210.

Wow all right okay so my lock i'll go uh you know what yeah i'll go pittsburgh plus yeah yes yes i love the way our card is being crafted for my dog i mean come on you don't think i'm gonna fade trey lance on the road hey maybe i'm completely wrong i'll eat my words but give me chicago plus 225 for my t's give me kc to win give me tennessee at plus a half fading my dog interesting and last but not least i'll take uh baltimore minus one i do like baltimore minus seven i also like houston plus seven and a half but what else on this slate is lockworthy packers yeah you know what i gave them out early as my look ahead lock but give it to me one more time a-rod gets it done green bay minus one and a half right and if you want to route along uh with us we have an in in an expert industry league futures draft we have the packers we were the savages taking all the week one nfl lines we have the packers and the jags week one so hell yeah circus survivor we already mapped it out with moon off we're taking the panthers yes and what do we got for our millions all right well houston plus seven and a half baltimore baltimore minus seven pittsburgh plus six and a half oh yeah green bay minus one and a half and then i think chicago because we both agree on that right no no no i said that was really gross oh okay i thought you meant grosses in you like taking groceries it's a gross dog okay if we're if we're talking through the last play uh other games we agree on carolina jacksonville atlanta philly chicago raiders i'm climbing seattle yeah i mean i'm fine feeding the cowboys which gross dog do you like more which one seattle no i like i like chicago yeah or atlanta i like chicago i don't know if i've mentioned that ron oh it's gross well we can we can take the eagles we can take the the bucks the bucks on our field goal no no take the bears it's the right play chicago plus seven yeah all right let's go football is back but i'm gonna let you know when you when you were wrong okay that's fine ryan you can look in the rear view i'm looking forward when we dominate this card thank you guys as always for tuning in thank you for spreading the word get in discord it's a hell of a lot of fun it's your uh digital uh digital sports bar for degeneracy sportsgivingpodcast.com discord get in there get involved and get involved in our contest five thousand dollars up for grabs and a two-night stay at the win what more do you want people all this completely free hey use the promo code football twenty percent off for nfl week one over at the merch store thank you for participating in the sports gaming podcast four the sports gaming podcast i'm sean second the money greeting he's ryan no giants have not lost the game yet this season kramer let it ride [Music] you


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